أين وصلت الجزائر..؟
مشاهدة : 303
حينما تحدثنا سابقا عن ماذا يقع في الجزائر، كان توقعنا أن يترشح بوتفليقة و ينجح ثم يعلن إنتخابات سابقة لأوانها في ظرف سنة كي يمنح فرصة للعسكر قصد صناعة رئيس آخر في ظرف ستة اشهر و تستمر اللعبة . لكن ضمن نفس المقال لم تفتنا فرصة التذكير بذكاء النظام المتحكم في الجزائر في تعامله مع حقيقة الأوضاع و خياراته الإستراتيجية: تشتيت بال الشارع و الالتفاف عليه، مع دفع المعارضة نحو زاوية ارتكاب الأخطاء القاتلة و اتبات ضعفها المركب.
الاحداث الأخيرة لم تخرج عن سياق نفس السيناريو و إن كان بإخراج مختلف و معدل.
فإن كان الهدف وفق السناريو الأول هو الالتفاف حول مطالب الشارع التي كانت ضد العهدة الخامسة، فلقد ثم إخراج الشارع للاحتفال بها، لكن عبر التمديد عوض الانتخاب. وإن كان الهدف هو منح الجيش فرصة تهيئة رئيس آخر، فلقد كان له ما أراد دون اهدار اموال و جهد تنظيم إنتخابات أبريل. و إن كان الهدف هو خلط اوراق المعارضة ، فلقد نجح نظام حراس تابوت السيد الرئيس في المزيد من خلق الهوة بين الشارع و المعارضة من خلال ربح إرتياح القوى الخارجية و ثقتها في خيارات النظام القائم – و هو ما عبرت عنه الخارجية الفرنسية بصفتها الوصي على ضبط إيقاع ما يحدث داخليا في الجزائر.
و بمنطق الربح و الخسارة، ماذا ربحت أطراف الصراع حول الحكم في الجزائر؟ و ماذا خسرت؟
قبل الإجابة، من هي أولا أطراف هذا الصراع؟
فبقدر غموض الأوضاع داخل الشقيقة الجزائر- بالنظر لتاريخ الدولة و تاريخ عقيدتها في التدبير الداخلي و الخارجي- بقدر صعوبة تحديد أطراف الصراع داخلها. و السبب أنها تدخل ضمن خانة اخر دول العالم التي خرجت من فكرة الدولة الواحدة و المجتمع الوحيد و الجيش الأوحد. بمعنى الدولة الرافضة لفكرة التعدد و التعددية، و هو إحالة على مساءلة صدقية وجود أصوات متعددة أو أن الأمر هو مجرد صوت واحد بألوان مختلفة.
مهما كان الأمر، فالحقيقة تحيل على أن هناك أزمة. أزمة يمكن تفسيرها على احادية متازمة تبحث عن مخرج بصيغة التعدد، أو أن التعددية الجينية تبحث لها عن مخرجات الولادة.
المهم، لنفرض جدلا أن هناك اطراف صراع . أطراف يمكن اختزالها في أربعة: نظام حكم بإسم شرعية التحرير، جيش سيطر بناءا على قوة الخلط بين الأيديولوجيا الشرقية و الوصاية التاريخية، معارضة اختلط ضمنها زحف المشرق و رغبة الانسلاخ عن وصاية التاريخ ،و شعب ترسخت فيه الانفة المصطنعة عن قصد و اصطدم بحقيقة الدولة الغنية و الشعب الفقير.
ربح النظام التمديد دون التبعات السياسية لانتخابات مكلفة ماديا و سياسيا، الشارع ربح رهان كسر جدار الخوف و القابلية للاحتجاج في الشارع بعيدا عن فزاعة العشرية السوداء و معارضة تنفست الصعداء دون خروجها من عنق الزجاجة و جيش امتلك مساحة أخرى في علاقته بكل من النظام و المعارضة و الشارع قصد إعادة ترتيب أوراقه قصد الرهان على نفسه فقط.
فبعيدا عن الدستور و الشارع و المعارضة، هناك مساحة للجيش صنعها بوتفليقة.
وخارج السياق و ضمنه في نفس الوقت، كيف يمكن قراءة المراقبة الخارجية للوضع الجزائري؟
دوليا، فرنسا تراقب بحذر ،و جهويا قطر و تركيا و فلكها تمارس مناوشات إعلامية ،و السعودية و مصر و الإمارات تدفع نحو رؤية استكمالية للصراع حول تونس و ليبيا. و باقي الأطراف الكبرى- امريكا و روسيا- تسيير الأمر بناءا على رهانات الحسم في اخر لحظة. فما هو موقف المغرب، الجار و الشقيق اللذوذ؟
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